San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints27
- Stephon CastleAssists11
- Luke KornetRebounds12
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints21
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Tristan VukcevicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–113
- Q423.9Malaki Branham makes driving layup (Bub Carrington assists)124–113
- Q429.1shot clock turnover124–111
- Q451.4Keldon Johnson defensive rebound124–111
- Q454.3Bub Carrington misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–111
- Q41:06De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2124–111
- Q41:06Will Riley enters the game for Kyshawn George123–111
- Q41:06Malaki Branham enters the game for CJ McCollum123–111
- Q41:06De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2123–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:42Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 13 – 13 WSH · SA 84% → 88% +4SA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q15:53Julian Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 16 – 15 WSH · SA 85% → 89% +4SA 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q12:20Tre Johnson makes 34-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)SA 20 – 22 WSH · WSH 12% → 16% +4WSH 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q135.0De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 26 – 26 WSH · SA 82% → 86% +4SA 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q211:28De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 29 – 30 WSH · SA 80% → 84% +5SA 80% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -15.5
- ML SA -1350 / WSH +800
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -12.5
- SA 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- SA: Elo 88.4%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -838
- WSH +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 126.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +70 | −21 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Marvin Bagley III −24, Alex Sarr −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +353 Elo | SA 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 89.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 112.726th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 126.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −13.530th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 108.527th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 121.530th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 2–930th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150810th of 30 |
| 9th of 301553 | Elo rating | 130830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−21 Elo- Marvin Bagley III sore left calf−24 Elo
- Alex Sarr right adductor−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–11 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.