Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Payton PritchardAssists5
- Hugo GonzalezRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–103
- Q44.4Kam Jones makes driving layup95–103
- Q410.9Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 293–103
- Q410.9Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Neemias Queta93–102
- Q410.9Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jaylen Brown93–102
- Q410.9Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 293–102
- Q410.9Taelon Peter shooting foul93–101
- Q432.2Garrison Mathews makes free throw 2 of 293–101
- Q432.2Anfernee Simons enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez92–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:15Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 74 – 68 BOS · BOS 38% → 49% +11BOS 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q48:20Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)IND 84 – 83 BOS · BOS 45% → 60% +15BOS 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q44:00Neemias Queta makes 3-foot two point shot (Derrick White assists)IND 88 – 91 BOS · BOS 67% → 79% +12BOS 67% → 79%+12 pts
- Q43:49Andrew Nembhard makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotIND 90 – 91 BOS · IND 21% → 33% +12IND 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q42:25Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot fade away jump shot (Derrick White assists)IND 91 – 96 BOS · BOS 75% → 91% +17BOS 75% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML IND +440 / BOS -600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 84.7%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -463
- IND +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 107.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −1 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +298 Elo | BOS 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 83.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 116.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 110.52nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +6.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 118.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 9–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 16363rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–14 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–8 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Dec 29IND 123 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 81%Miss
- Dec 27IND 105 @ BOS 142Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 23IND 110 @ BOS 126PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- May 21IND 128 @ BOS 133PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Jan 30IND 124 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 59%Hit