Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Derrick WhiteAssists6
- Payton PritchardRebounds9
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints18
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–122
- Q420.4shot clock turnover140–122
- Q444.5Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2140–122
- Q444.5Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2140–121
- Q444.5Luka Garza shooting foul140–120
- Q41:01Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2140–120
- Q41:01Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2139–120
- Q41:01Kam Jones shooting foul138–120
- Q41:09Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jordan Walsh138–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:49Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 31 – 39 IND · BOS 46% → 53% +7BOS 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q211:08Derrick White makes 28-foot three pointerBOS 34 – 39 IND · BOS 53% → 60% +7BOS 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q210:12Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)BOS 37 – 42 IND · IND 34% → 41% +7IND 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q29:07Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 42 – 44 IND · BOS 59% → 66% +7BOS 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q27:45Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 47 – 48 IND · BOS 61% → 68% +7BOS 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -340 / IND +270
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -286
- IND +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.5 – 107.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −45 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +227 Elo | BOS 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 109.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 117.721st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −8.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 106.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 114.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 9th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 5–1127th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301638 | Elo rating | 141225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–13 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–4 IND in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- Dec 22IND 95 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Dec 29IND 123 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 81%Miss
- Dec 27IND 105 @ BOS 142Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 23IND 110 @ BOS 126PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- May 21IND 128 @ BOS 133PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit