Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points24
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Pacers- T.J. McConnellPoints16
- T.J. McConnellAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–94
- Q410.7Jericho Sims defensive rebound111–94
- Q414.7Jarace Walker misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot111–94
- Q424.7Cole Anthony makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)111–94
- Q444.3Kam Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Wiseman assists)108–94
- Q454.0Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2108–91
- Q454.0Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2107–91
- Q454.0James Wiseman loose ball foul106–91
- Q454.0Bucks defensive team rebound106–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIL 0 – 3 IND · IND 50% → 56% +6IND 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q110:01Kevin Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumperMIL 3 – 3 IND · MIL 44% → 50% +6MIL 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q12:27Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 18 – 15 IND · MIL 50% → 57% +7MIL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q210:32Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 31 – 20 IND · MIL 69% → 75% +6MIL 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:26Garrison Mathews makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)MIL 33 – 23 IND · IND 21% → 26% +6IND 21% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -112 / IND -108
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- MIL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 46.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- IND +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 109.0 – 107.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −74 | −38 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +22 Elo | IND 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 109.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 106.630th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 114.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 5–1025th of 30 |
| 20th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 18th of 301450 | Elo rating | 142824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–16 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–13 IND in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.
- Nov 3MIL 117 @ IND 115Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Apr 29MIL 118 @ IND 119PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit
- Apr 27IND 129 @ MIL 103PlayoffsPicked MIL 62%Miss
- Apr 25IND 101 @ MIL 117PlayoffsPicked MIL 64%Hit
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 15IND 119 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 59%Hit
- Mar 11MIL 114 @ IND 115Picked IND 54%Hit