Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points24
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists9
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–103
- Q40.5Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert100–103
- Q40.5Timberwolves Full timeout100–103
- Q40.5Kevin Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper100–103
- Q40.5Kevin Porter Jr. offensive rebound97–103
- Q40.5Mike Conley blocks Kevin Porter Jr. 's 24-foot three point jumper97–103
- Q49.0Kevin Porter Jr. offensive rebound97–103
- Q49.9Myles Turner misses 24-foot three point jumper97–103
- Q421.8Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)97–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:30Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 78 – 75 MIN · MIL 32% → 44% +12MIL 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q411:01Bones Hyland makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIL 78 – 78 MIN · MIN 55% → 67% +12MIN 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q410:32Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 81 – 78 MIN · MIL 33% → 46% +13MIL 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q410:12Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIL 81 – 81 MIN · MIN 54% → 67% +13MIN 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q48:32Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)MIL 85 – 86 MIN · MIN 56% → 70% +14MIN 56% → 70%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML MIL +455 / MIN -625
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 83.9%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -478
- MIL +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 107.0 – 119.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −84 | +12 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +286 Elo | MIN 83.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Points scored | 119.29th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 114.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.9 | Margin | +4.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 19th of 301451 | Elo rating | 16065th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.