Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints37
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints26
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Donovan ClinganRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–114
- Q45.6Payton Pritchard bad pass
turnover (Deni Avdija steals)108–114
- Q415.9Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q415.9Neemias Queta enters the game for Anfernee Simons108–113
- Q415.9Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
- Q415.9Sam Hauser personal take foul108–112
- Q419.8Derrick White bad pass
turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)108–112
- Q421.3Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul108–112
- Q422.4Anfernee Simons enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:31Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)BOS 92 – 98 POR · POR 48% → 75% +26POR 48% → 75%+26 pts
- Q43:06Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)BOS 102 – 106 POR · POR 53% → 76% +22POR 53% → 76%+22 pts
- Q42:42Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three pointerBOS 105 – 106 POR · BOS 22% → 46% +24BOS 22% → 46%+24 pts
- Q443.0Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 108 – 109 POR · BOS 5% → 36% +31BOS 5% → 36%+31 pts
- Q422.4Donovan Clingan makes two point shotBOS 108 – 111 POR · POR 71% → 96% +25POR 71% → 96%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -258 / POR +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.9%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -223
- POR +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 119.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | 0 | BOS: Usual rotation · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −49, Robert Williams III −11, Jerami Grant −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +190 Elo | BOS 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 116.616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 120.525th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −3.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 114.919th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.2 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15284th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301643 | Elo rating | 141426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
0 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−49 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−11 Elo
- Jerami Grant left achilles tendinitis−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–13 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.