Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kyle AndersonPoints22
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Kyle AndersonRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints45
- James HardenAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–118
- Q46.6shot clock turnover101–118
- Q430.7Taylor Hendricks out of bounds bad pass turnover101–118
- Q434.7Kobe Brown bad pass
turnover (Taylor Hendricks steals)101–118
- Q447.3Brice Sensabaugh makes 1-foot driving dunk (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)101–118
- Q453.5Kobe Sanders makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)99–118
- Q41:08Brice Sensabaugh steps out of bounds turnover99–115
- Q41:17Kobe Sanders makes driving layup99–115
- Q41:29Kobe Brown enters the game for Nicolas Batum99–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:15James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 77 – 78 LAC · LAC 64% → 75% +10LAC 64% → 75%+10 pts
- Q49:53Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Yanic Konan Niederhauser assists)UTAH 83 – 87 LAC · LAC 73% → 83% +10LAC 73% → 83%+10 pts
- Q48:22Kobe Sanders makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)UTAH 90 – 93 LAC · LAC 67% → 79% +12LAC 67% → 79%+12 pts
- Q47:51Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 92 – 96 LAC · LAC 71% → 83% +12LAC 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q47:20Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 94 – 99 LAC · LAC 75% → 86% +11LAC 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML UTAH +575 / LAC -850
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.7%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -604
- UTAH +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 108.5 – 122.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | −10 | UTAH: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −19, Kevin Love −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +198 Elo | LAC 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 112.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.1 | Points allowed | 114.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.7 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 113.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 115.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 15195th of 30 |
| 24th of 301417 | Elo rating | 153612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−53 Elo- Jusuf Nurkic sprained left toe−19 Elo
- Kevin Love rest−17 Elo
Clippers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–14 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–6 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Oct 22LAC 108 @ UTAH 129Picked LAC 76%Miss
- Feb 13LAC 120 @ UTAH 116Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 110 @ LAC 130Picked LAC 90%Hit
- Dec 16UTAH 107 @ LAC 144Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Nov 17UTAH 105 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Apr 12UTAH 110 @ LAC 109Picked LAC 82%Miss
- Apr 5UTAH 102 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 71%Hit
- Dec 8LAC 117 @ UTAH 103Picked LAC 62%Hit