Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints25
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–106
- Q419.3shot clock turnover120–106
- Q441.5Sam Hauser defensive rebound120–106
- Q444.7DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point jumper120–106
- Q453.2Neemias Queta makes 3-foot dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)120–106
- Q41:14Neemias Queta defensive rebound118–106
- Q41:17Dennis Schroder misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot118–106
- Q41:23Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2118–106
- Q41:23Celtics offensive team rebound117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:58Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot running jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)BOS 74 – 77 SAC · SAC 31% → 40% +9SAC 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:23Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 77 – 77 SAC · BOS 59% → 69% +9BOS 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q35:04Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 80 – 81 SAC · BOS 55% → 65% +10BOS 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q410:45Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Hugo Gonzalez assists)BOS 93 – 90 SAC · BOS 64% → 76% +11BOS 64% → 76%+11 pts
- Q47:27Sam Hauser makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 102 – 96 SAC · BOS 76% → 86% +11BOS 76% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -440 / SAC +340
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 82.9%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -359
- SAC +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 120.0 – 109.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −81 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +274 Elo | BOS 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 111.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.2 | Margin | −11.329th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 107.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 5–1026th of 30 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15451st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301636 | Elo rating | 141025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–14 | 12–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.