Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints39
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Will RichardRebounds7
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds25
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–141
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–141
- OT13.8shot clock turnover127–141
- OT37.9Quinten Post personal foul127–141
- OT39.1Garrett Temple defensive rebound127–141
- OT42.2Brandin Podziemski misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot127–141
- OT48.2Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Jamal Shead127–141
- OT48.2Garrett Temple enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter127–141
- OT48.2Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Immanuel Quickley127–141
- OT48.2Gradey Dick enters the game for Scottie Barnes127–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:41Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)GS 113 – 111 TOR · TOR 15% → 32% +17TOR 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q446.1Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)GS 120 – 120 TOR · TOR 10% → 49% +38TOR 10% → 49%+38 pts
- Q432.8Brandin Podziemski makes two point shotGS 122 – 120 TOR · GS 51% → 84% +33GS 51% → 84%+33 pts
- Q423.6Scottie Barnes makes tip shotGS 122 – 122 TOR · TOR 12% → 49% +37TOR 12% → 49%+37 pts
- OT3:27Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)GS 122 – 129 TOR · TOR 76% → 90% +14TOR 76% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML GS -180 / TOR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- GS: Elo 59.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 111.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +15 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +68 Elo | GS 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 112.55th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–11 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 147429th of 30 |
| 10th of 301565 | Elo rating | 143520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.