Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints27
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds12
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points21
- Norman PowellAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–91
- Q41.8Jamal Shead lost ball turnover (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)112–91
- Q49.8Jamal Shead defensive rebound112–91
- Q410.8Jamal Shead blocks Kasparas Jakucionis 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–91
- Q419.2Heat offensive team rebound112–91
- Q422.4Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper112–91
- Q435.3Collin Murray-Boyles makes driving layup (Jamal Shead assists)112–91
- Q448.6Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound110–91
- Q449.0Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Immanuel Quickley110–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:31Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)TOR 43 – 41 MIA · MIA 48% → 56% +8MIA 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q242.9Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)TOR 48 – 44 MIA · MIA 41% → 50% +9MIA 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q225.5Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 51 – 44 MIA · TOR 50% → 59% +9TOR 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q310:51Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)TOR 53 – 47 MIA · MIA 34% → 43% +9MIA 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q310:33Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 56 – 47 MIA · TOR 57% → 66% +9TOR 57% → 66%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML TOR +180 / MIA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 65.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 116.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +24 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +114 Elo | MIA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 117.821st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +2.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 110.44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.8 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 30 |
| 21st of 301435 | Elo rating | 148015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+24 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–17 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–19 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–6 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 15TOR 106 @ MIA 96Picked MIA 62%Miss
- Feb 21MIA 120 @ TOR 111Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 12TOR 104 @ MIA 114Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Dec 1MIA 116 @ TOR 119Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Apr 14TOR 103 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 86%Hit
- Apr 12TOR 103 @ MIA 125Picked MIA 80%Hit
- Jan 17MIA 97 @ TOR 121Picked MIA 59%Miss