Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints19
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds6
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points24
- Terance MannAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game81–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter81–96
- Q47.3shot clock turnover81–96
- Q428.4Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound81–96
- Q429.4Gradey Dick misses tip shot81–96
- Q429.4Gradey Dick offensive rebound81–96
- Q432.8Gradey Dick misses driving layup81–96
- Q441.5Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Nic Claxton81–96
- Q441.5Danny Wolf enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.81–96
- Q441.5Nic Claxton personal take foul81–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q328.9Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 62 – 67 BKN · TOR 24% → 34% +10TOR 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q32.2Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 65 – 67 BKN · TOR 34% → 46% +12TOR 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q49:55Egor Demin makes 26-foot three pointer (Terance Mann assists)TOR 71 – 72 BKN · BKN 37% → 51% +13BKN 37% → 51%+13 pts
- Q47:55Egor Demin makes 30-foot three pointerTOR 73 – 79 BKN · BKN 62% → 75% +14BKN 62% → 75%+14 pts
- Q47:22Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)TOR 73 – 82 BKN · BKN 76% → 87% +10BKN 76% → 87%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -3.5
- ML TOR -155 / BKN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- BKN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 106.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +23 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Drake Powell −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +6 Elo | BKN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 109.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 115.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −5.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 109.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 3–1129th of 30 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149018th of 30 |
| 21st of 301448 | Elo rating | 137928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+23 Elo- Drake Powell sprained right ankle−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–16 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–4 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Nov 23BKN 109 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 83%Hit
- Nov 11TOR 119 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 79%Hit
- Apr 6TOR 120 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 26TOR 116 @ BKN 86Picked BKN 55%Miss
- Jan 1BKN 113 @ TOR 130Picked TOR 52%Hit
- Dec 19BKN 101 @ TOR 94Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Apr 10TOR 102 @ BKN 106Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 25BKN 96 @ TOR 88Picked BKN 57%Hit