Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints28
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds19
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints47
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–132
- Q43.1shot clock turnover125–132
- Q427.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot125–132
- Q433.4Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2123–132
- Q433.4Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2123–131
- Q433.4Davion Mitchell personal take foul123–130
- Q434.6Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)123–130
- Q444.0OG Anunoby makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Josh Hart assists)120–130
- Q41:02Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot120–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:51Kel'el Ware makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 91 – 92 NY · MIA 25% → 34% +10MIA 25% → 34%+10 pts
- Q316.3Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dru Smith assists)MIA 99 – 102 NY · MIA 18% → 28% +9MIA 18% → 28%+9 pts
- Q43:31Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 116 – 120 NY · MIA 7% → 18% +11MIA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- Q42:51Josh Hart makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIA 118 – 122 NY · NY 71% → 84% +13NY 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q42:15Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)MIA 118 – 125 NY · NY 86% → 96% +10NY 86% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML MIA +235 / NY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- NY: Elo 75.0%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -249
- MIA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.5 – 122.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +38 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +191 Elo | NY 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 120.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 112.45th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +7.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 119.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.4 | Pace | 100.425th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 13–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 147527th of 30 |
| 15th of 301483 | Elo rating | 16244th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+24 Elo- Tyler Herro toe injury−20 Elo
Knicks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–13 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–6 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 17NY 113 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 50%Hit
- Nov 14MIA 132 @ NY 140Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 26NY 107 @ MIA 115Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 17MIA 95 @ NY 116Picked NY 71%Hit
- Mar 2NY 116 @ MIA 112Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 30NY 116 @ MIA 107Picked NY 53%Hit
- Apr 2NY 99 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 52%Hit
- Jan 27MIA 109 @ NY 125Picked NY 70%Hit