Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints29
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds11
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints23
- CJ McCollumAssists4
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–138
- Q421.5Garrett Temple bad pass
turnover (Jamir Watkins steals)117–138
- Q432.9Will Riley makes driving layup117–138
- Q452.6Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound117–136
- Q454.4A.J. Lawson misses driving layup117–136
- Q41:07Malaki Branham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tristan Vukcevic assists)117–136
- Q41:27Gradey Dick makes running layup (Garrett Temple assists)117–133
- Q41:31AJ Johnson bad pass
turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)115–133
- Q41:33Wizards offensive team rebound115–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:04Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 76 – 81 WSH · TOR 40% → 50% +10TOR 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q35:46Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)TOR 82 – 89 WSH · WSH 49% → 59% +10WSH 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q410:33Justin Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)TOR 102 – 109 WSH · WSH 56% → 69% +13WSH 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q410:08Bub Carrington makes 25-foot running jump shot (Tre Johnson assists)TOR 102 – 112 WSH · WSH 69% → 80% +11WSH 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q48:19CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Marvin Bagley III assists)TOR 104 – 115 WSH · WSH 77% → 87% +10WSH 77% → 87%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -8.5
- ML TOR -325 / WSH +260
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4.5
- TOR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 67.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -275
- WSH +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 117.0 – 108.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1295 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +2 | TOR: Missing Collin Murray-Boyles −4 · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +124 Elo | TOR 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 112.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 126.129th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −13.530th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.727th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 121.730th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.7 | Pace | 102.910th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 2–1030th of 30 |
| 28th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 150713th of 30 |
| 17th of 301460 | Elo rating | 129530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−3 Elo- Collin Murray-Boyles injury/illness−4 Elo
Wizards
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–17 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 11–20 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–2 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 21WSH 110 @ TOR 140Picked TOR 86%Hit
- Mar 24TOR 112 @ WSH 104Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Mar 10WSH 104 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 69%Hit
- Mar 8WSH 118 @ TOR 117Picked TOR 62%Miss
- Jan 29TOR 106 @ WSH 82Picked TOR 67%Hit
- Apr 7WSH 122 @ TOR 130Picked WSH 50%Miss
- Mar 23TOR 109 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 72%Hit
- Dec 27TOR 132 @ WSH 102Picked TOR 60%Hit