Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Khris MiddletonPoints16
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–126
- Q45.9shot clock turnover109–126
- Q430.0Will Riley makes 3-foot two point shot109–126
- Q444.8Sion James makes free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q444.8Sion James makes free throw 1 of 2107–125
- Q444.8Malaki Branham shooting foul107–124
- Q452.4Hornets offensive team rebound107–124
- Q452.4Tidjane Salaun misses driving layup107–124
- Q41:06Malaki Branham makes driving layup107–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:11Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)WSH 76 – 80 CHA · CHA 65% → 74% +9CHA 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:13Tre Johnson makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 83 – 84 CHA · WSH 26% → 36% +9WSH 26% → 36%+9 pts
- Q31:41Tre Mann makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 87 – 89 CHA · CHA 56% → 67% +11CHA 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q410:43Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)WSH 90 – 97 CHA · CHA 75% → 84% +9CHA 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q46:06Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)WSH 101 – 108 CHA · CHA 78% → 88% +11CHA 78% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML WSH +205 / CHA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 58.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -218
- WSH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 123.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1306 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | −2 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +62 Elo | CHA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 29th of 30126.1 | Points allowed | 119.223rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.4 | Margin | −4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.4 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.1 | Pace | 101.918th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148818th of 30 |
| 30th of 301306 | Elo rating | 136629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–17 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–3 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss
- Dec 19CHA 114 @ WSH 123Picked CHA 59%Miss
- Mar 8CHA 100 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 53%Miss
- Nov 22WSH 114 @ CHA 117Picked CHA 66%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 124 @ WSH 117Picked CHA 51%Hit