Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Dean WadeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–139
- Q410.3Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2132–139
- Q410.3Liam McNeeley makes free throw 1 of 2131–139
- Q410.3Craig Porter Jr. shooting foul130–139
- Q411.4Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound130–139
- Q416.4Jaylon Tyson misses two point shot130–139
- Q440.8Liam McNeeley makes 28-foot three point jumper130–139
- Q442.1Liam McNeeley offensive rebound127–139
- Q445.0Tre Mann misses 31-foot three point jumper127–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:04LaMelo Ball makes 30-foot three pointer (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 47 – 41 CLE · CHA 35% → 42% +7CHA 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:47Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer (Dean Wade assists)CHA 47 – 44 CLE · CLE 58% → 65% +7CLE 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q25:42Brandon Miller makes 31-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 52 – 49 CLE · CHA 29% → 36% +7CHA 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q23:15Darius Garland makes two point shotCHA 55 – 57 CLE · CLE 68% → 75% +7CLE 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q35:12Thomas Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CHA 82 – 86 CLE · CLE 69% → 78% +8CLE 69% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CHA +295 / CLE -375
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.4%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -312
- CHA +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 124.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −27 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +167 Elo | CLE 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.711th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 117.020th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | +1.711th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 9–817th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 147129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301370 | Elo rating | 151714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–14 | 8–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–18 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–5 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 14CHA 119 @ CLE 111Picked CLE 83%Miss
- Mar 7CLE 118 @ CHA 117Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Jan 5CHA 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 89%Hit
- Dec 7CLE 116 @ CHA 102Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Nov 17CHA 114 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 14CHA 120 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 67%Miss
- Mar 27CLE 111 @ CHA 118Picked CLE 66%Miss
- Mar 25CHA 92 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 67%Hit