Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Lonzo BallRebounds7
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–127
- Q45.5shot clock turnover111–127
- Q427.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound111–127
- Q429.7Josh Giddey blocks Thomas Bryant 's 2-foot dunk111–127
- Q432.6Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound111–127
- Q437.5Thomas Bryant misses 26-foot three point jumper111–127
- Q446.5Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound111–127
- Q449.0Josh Giddey misses driving floating jump shot111–127
- Q41:02Zach Collins defensive rebound111–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214.4Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)CLE 58 – 62 CHI · CHI 41% → 50% +9CHI 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q311:09Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CLE 58 – 67 CHI · CHI 57% → 65% +9CHI 57% → 65%+9 pts
- Q39:27Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CLE 64 – 74 CHI · CHI 61% → 69% +9CHI 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q31:29Donovan Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 86 – 93 CHI · CLE 22% → 32% +10CLE 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q411:15Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CLE 88 – 98 CHI · CHI 71% → 81% +10CHI 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -218 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 124.0 – 118.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +6 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +109 Elo | CLE 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 117.215th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 122.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −5.123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.0 | Pace | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 148026th of 30 |
| 9th of 301551 | Elo rating | 139026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–19 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–1 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 8CHI 122 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Apr 8CHI 113 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Mar 4CLE 139 @ CHI 117Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 15CHI 126 @ CLE 144Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Nov 11CLE 119 @ CHI 113Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ CHI 132Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Feb 14CHI 105 @ CLE 108Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 15CHI 91 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 63%Hit