Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints24
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds15
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–125
- Q416.3Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound136–125
- Q419.1Darius Garland misses two point shot136–125
- Q426.7Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2136–125
- Q426.7Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2135–125
- Q426.7Jarrett Allen personal foul134–125
- Q432.0Darius Garland makes two point shot134–125
- Q439.7Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2134–123
- Q439.7Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2133–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:24Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot (Tre Jones assists)CHI 87 – 87 CLE · CHI 30% → 43% +14CHI 30% → 43%+14 pts
- Q46:45Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 115 – 110 CLE · CHI 57% → 72% +15CHI 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q46:00Darius Garland makes 33-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)CHI 115 – 115 CLE · CLE 37% → 54% +17CLE 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q44:19Jarrett Allen makes tip shotCHI 119 – 117 CLE · CLE 27% → 40% +13CLE 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q43:58Nikola Vucevic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 122 – 117 CLE · CHI 61% → 79% +18CHI 61% → 79%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CHI +150 / CLE -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.0 – 121.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −88 | CHI: Usual rotation · CLE: Missing Donovan Mitchell −71 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +71 Elo | CLE 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 118.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 116.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.8 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–9 | Road vs home | 9–715th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 147229th of 30 |
| 25th of 301410 | Elo rating | 153114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−88 Elo- Donovan Mitchell illness−71 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 8–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–8 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 17CLE 111 @ CHI 127Picked CLE 66%Miss
- Nov 8CHI 122 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Apr 8CHI 113 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Mar 4CLE 139 @ CHI 117Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 15CHI 126 @ CLE 144Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Nov 11CLE 119 @ CHI 113Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ CHI 132Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Feb 14CHI 105 @ CLE 108Picked CLE 74%Hit