Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Stephen CurryAssists5
- De'Anthony MeltonRebounds8
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points27
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–107
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound120–107
- Q40.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 17-foot pullup jump shot120–107
- Q48.3Will Richard makes free throw 1 of 1120–107
- Q48.3Terance Mann shooting foul119–107
- Q48.3Will Richard makes 21-foot jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)119–107
- Q431.1Stephen Curry defensive rebound117–107
- Q433.1Michael Porter Jr. misses driving layup117–107
- Q444.5Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound117–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:46Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)GS 76 – 78 BKN · BKN 37% → 48% +11BKN 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:05Nolan Traore makes 27-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)GS 82 – 83 BKN · BKN 34% → 45% +11BKN 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q411:47Nolan Traore makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)GS 89 – 88 BKN · BKN 27% → 38% +11BKN 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q47:30Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)GS 98 – 95 BKN · BKN 17% → 29% +12BKN 17% → 29%+12 pts
- Q47:06Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)GS 101 – 95 BKN · GS 71% → 83% +12GS 71% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -218 / BKN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- GS: Elo 52.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -192
- BKN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.5 – 110.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | +59 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +14 Elo | GS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.9 | Points scored | 109.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 113.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 110.226th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 114.117th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.9 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–12 | Road vs home | 4–1129th of 30 |
| 9th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148721st of 30 |
| 10th of 301549 | Elo rating | 143322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–17 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.