Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints30
- Cam ThomasAssists4
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Julius RandleAssists11
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–107
- Q412.6shot clock turnover123–107
- Q437.3Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)123–107
- Q449.7Bones Hyland defensive rebound123–104
- Q452.1Jalen Wilson misses 26-foot three point jumper123–104
- Q41:12Rob Dillingham makes free throw 2 of 2123–104
- Q41:12Jalen Wilson enters the game for Terance Mann123–103
- Q41:12Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Nic Claxton123–103
- Q41:12Nolan Traore enters the game for Noah Clowney123–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:08Noah Clowney makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Egor Demin assists)BKN 71 – 65 MIN · BKN 34% → 43% +9BKN 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q38:40Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)BKN 71 – 68 MIN · MIN 56% → 65% +9MIN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q35:08Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)BKN 82 – 74 MIN · BKN 45% → 55% +10BKN 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q33:49Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 85 – 78 MIN · BKN 43% → 53% +11BKN 43% → 53%+11 pts
- Q352.9Drake Powell makes 25-foot running jump shot (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 96 – 82 MIN · BKN 73% → 82% +9BKN 73% → 82%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML BKN +470 / MIN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 76.1%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -494
- BKN +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.0 – 118.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +27 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +201 Elo | MIN 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 119.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 114.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.6 | Margin | +4.78th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 12–57th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 30 |
| 25th of 301407 | Elo rating | 16095th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–14 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–5 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.