Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints56
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game138–141
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime138–141
- OT2.4Bones Hyland makes 1-foot two point shot138–141
- OT7.2Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2136–141
- OT7.2Bruce Brown enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas136–140
- OT7.2Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2136–140
- OT7.2Johnny Juzang enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo136–139
- OT7.2Donte DiVincenzo personal foul136–139
- OT7.6Nuggets defensive team rebound136–140
- OT7.6Bones Hyland misses free throw 3 of 3136–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:49Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 107 – 111 DEN · DEN 60% → 86% +25DEN 60% → 86%+25 pts
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 115 – 115 DEN · MIN <1% → 50% +50MIN <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:26Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)MIN 126 – 126 DEN · DEN 27% → 50% +23DEN 27% → 50%+23 pts
- OT48.7Anthony Edwards makes 4-foot two point shotMIN 128 – 128 DEN · MIN 21% → 50% +29MIN 21% → 50%+29 pts
- OT35.7Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 128 – 131 DEN · DEN 50% → 92% +42DEN 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MIN -115 / DEN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.0 – 118.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −28 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +28 Elo | DEN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 125.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +8.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 123.41st of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148521st of 30 |
| 5th of 301615 | Elo rating | 16512nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–18 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–7 DEN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Mar 12MIN 115 @ DEN 95Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Jan 25DEN 104 @ MIN 133Picked DEN 59%Miss
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit