New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints40
- Tyler KolekAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds15
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–115
- Q416.0Mike Conley defensive rebound104–115
- Q418.9Rudy Gobert blocks Ariel Hukporti 's 1-foot layup104–115
- Q434.9Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2104–115
- Q434.9Tosan Evbuomwan enters the game for Tyler Kolek104–114
- Q434.9Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Mikal Bridges104–114
- Q434.9Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Josh Hart104–114
- Q434.9Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Jordan Clarkson104–114
- Q434.9Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2104–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:51Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 65 – 67 MIN · NY 23% → 31% +8NY 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q33:12Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointerNY 71 – 78 MIN · MIN 75% → 83% +8MIN 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q32:51Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 74 – 78 MIN · NY 17% → 25% +8NY 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q344.4Mohamed Diawara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 79 – 82 MIN · NY 19% → 28% +9NY 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q31.0Jaylen Clark makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)NY 79 – 85 MIN · MIN 72% → 81% +9MIN 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML NY +225 / MIN -278
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.0%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -239
- NY +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.5 – 119.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +20 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +85 Elo | MIN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 118.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 113.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 115.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.5 | Pace | 102.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 149815th of 30 |
| 4th of 301627 | Elo rating | 16075th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–12 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–10 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.