Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points28
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds11
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints27
- Joel EmbiidAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q420.0Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 1114–106
- Q420.0Michael Porter Jr. shooting foul114–105
- Q420.0Jabari Walker makes driving layup114–105
- Q436.4Egor Demin makes free throw 2 of 2114–103
- Q436.4Jabari Walker enters the game for Joel Embiid113–103
- Q436.4Justin Edwards enters the game for Jared McCain113–103
- Q436.4Johni Broome enters the game for Paul George113–103
- Q436.4Hunter Sallis enters the game for Tyrese Maxey113–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:54Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 54 – 47 PHI · BKN 40% → 48% +8BKN 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q253.4Danny Wolf makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BKN 61 – 55 PHI · BKN 38% → 46% +8BKN 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q37:29Egor Demin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BKN 73 – 65 PHI · BKN 48% → 58% +10BKN 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q37:01Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 76 – 65 PHI · BKN 58% → 67% +9BKN 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q33:30Day'Ron Sharpe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 83 – 70 PHI · BKN 69% → 78% +9BKN 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -9.5
- ML BKN +310 / PHI -395
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 72.7%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -327
- BKN +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +94 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +170 Elo | PHI 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 117.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.917th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 30 |
| 20th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148621st of 30 |
| 27th of 301392 | Elo rating | 146316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–14 | 18–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–6 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Nov 28PHI 115 @ BKN 103Picked PHI 71%Hit
- Nov 2PHI 129 @ BKN 105Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 105 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 82%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 96 @ BKN 100Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Jan 4PHI 123 @ BKN 94Picked PHI 77%Hit
- Nov 22BKN 98 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Apr 14BKN 86 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 65%Hit
- Mar 5PHI 107 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 52%Hit