Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints35
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Kevin LoveRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists8
- Gary Payton IIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q412.8Brice Sensabaugh makes 3-foot running dunk114–123
- Q414.9De'Anthony Melton bad pass
turnover (Brice Sensabaugh steals)112–123
- Q418.7De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound112–123
- Q422.3Stephen Curry misses two point shot112–123
- Q435.6Gary Payton II offensive rebound112–123
- Q439.0Jimmy Butler III misses 20-foot step back jumpshot112–123
- Q41:02Brice Sensabaugh makes running layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)112–123
- Q41:05Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28.8Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 65 – 58 GS · GS 47% → 56% +9GS 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q310:08Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three pointer (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 71 – 63 GS · UTAH 40% → 49% +9UTAH 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q39:59Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 71 – 66 GS · GS 50% → 60% +9GS 50% → 60%+9 pts
- Q39:18Quinten Post makes 28-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)UTAH 74 – 71 GS · GS 56% → 65% +9GS 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q32:46Stephen Curry makes 35-foot three pointerUTAH 93 – 96 GS · GS 70% → 79% +9GS 70% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -12.5
- ML UTAH +440 / GS -600
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- GS: Elo 69.9%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -463
- UTAH +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 130.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | +15 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +147 Elo | GS 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 113.98th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 112.122nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 111.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–10 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 24th of 301411 | Elo rating | 15569th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–15 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–7 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 24UTAH 117 @ GS 134Picked GS 85%Hit
- Feb 5GS 128 @ UTAH 131Picked GS 68%Miss
- Jan 28UTAH 103 @ GS 114Picked GS 79%Hit
- Oct 25GS 127 @ UTAH 86Picked GS 69%Hit
- Apr 14UTAH 116 @ GS 123Picked GS 80%Hit
- Apr 7UTAH 110 @ GS 118Picked GS 80%Hit
- Feb 15GS 140 @ UTAH 137Picked UTAH 54%Miss
- Feb 12GS 129 @ UTAH 107Picked UTAH 60%Miss