Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds15
Warriors- Al HorfordPoints13
- Pat SpencerAssists11
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–94
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)131–94
- Q42.2shot clock turnover131–94
- Q426.6Gui Santos makes layup (Buddy Hield assists)131–94
- Q441.8Gui Santos defensive rebound131–92
- Q444.3Chris Youngblood misses 26-foot running jump shot131–92
- Q447.6Branden Carlson defensive rebound131–92
- Q451.3Buddy Hield misses 23-foot running jump shot131–92
- Q457.4Quinten Post defensive rebound131–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Will Richard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)OKC 2 – 3 GS · GS 14% → 17% +4GS 14% → 17%+4 pts
- Q16:07Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 15 – 7 GS · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q27:19Will Richard makes 27-foot running jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)OKC 38 – 36 GS · GS 13% → 18% +5GS 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q26:32Isaiah Joe makes 1-foot dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 40 – 36 GS · OKC 82% → 85% +3OKC 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q24:52Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 47 – 36 GS · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML OKC -700 / GS +500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 78.8%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -525
- GS +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.0 – 106.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1717 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −80 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +228 Elo | OKC 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.1 | Points scored | 115.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 113.47th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+14.6 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.3 | Defense rating | 110.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.818th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 1st of 301717 | Elo rating | 15659th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−80 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga low back soreness−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–16 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | — | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–3 GS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 2OKC 124 @ GS 112Picked OKC 81%Hit
- Nov 11GS 102 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Jan 29OKC 109 @ GS 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Nov 27OKC 105 @ GS 101Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 10GS 127 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Dec 8GS 136 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 18OKC 130 @ GS 123Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 16OKC 128 @ GS 109Picked OKC 62%Hit