Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints30
- Dyson DanielsAssists7
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints39
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–140
- Q414.3shot clock turnover129–140
- Q439.0Luke Kennard lost ball turnover (Jalen Williams steals)129–140
- Q444.8Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lost ball turnover (Asa Newell steals)129–140
- Q41:01Asa Newell enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu129–140
- Q41:01Vit Krejci personal foul129–140
- Q41:05Onyeka Okongwu lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)129–140
- Q41:08Hawks offensive team rebound129–140
- Q41:08Dyson Daniels misses tip shot129–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:15Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 120 – 127 OKC · OKC 84% → 92% +8OKC 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q44:36Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 125 – 129 OKC · ATL 6% → 15% +9ATL 6% → 15%+9 pts
- Q43:55Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ATL 125 – 132 OKC · OKC 86% → 95% +9OKC 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q43:44Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 128 – 132 OKC · ATL 5% → 14% +9ATL 5% → 14%+9 pts
- Q43:29Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)ATL 128 – 135 OKC · OKC 86% → 95% +9OKC 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML ATL +700 / OKC -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13.5
- OKC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 89.6%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -733
- ATL +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 107.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1712 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −61 | +31 | ATL: Missing Trae Young −44 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +375 Elo | OKC 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 121.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 107.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +14.31st of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 118.45th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 104.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 15–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 147925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301425 | Elo rating | 17121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−61 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−44 Elo
Thunder
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–18 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | — |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–4 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.