New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints36
- Mikal BridgesAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints31
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–125
- Q41.8OG Anunoby defensive rebound128–125
- Q43.9Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot128–125
- Q47.3Hawks Full timeout128–125
- Q47.3OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2128–125
- Q47.3OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2127–125
- Q47.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal take foul126–125
- Q49.9Trae Young bad pass
turnover (OG Anunoby steals)126–125
- Q415.6Hawks Full timeout126–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:10Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)NY 117 – 116 ATL · ATL 18% → 38% +20ATL 18% → 38%+20 pts
- Q42:01Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)NY 119 – 121 ATL · ATL 37% → 66% +30ATL 37% → 66%+30 pts
- Q41:53Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotNY 121 – 121 ATL · NY 33% → 53% +20NY 33% → 53%+20 pts
- Q41:17Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 124 – 121 ATL · NY 53% → 85% +32NY 53% → 85%+32 pts
- Q449.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes running layupNY 124 – 125 ATL · ATL 33% → 63% +31ATL 33% → 63%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -225 / ATL +185
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.1 pts
- NY: Elo 77.5%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -197
- ATL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 125.0 – 119.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | +21 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +215 Elo | NY 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 118.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 119.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.1 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 113.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 5–1025th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 148519th of 30 |
| 4th of 301622 | Elo rating | 142823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+21 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–14 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–11 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Apr 5NY 121 @ ATL 105Picked NY 53%Hit
- Feb 12ATL 148 @ NY 149Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 20ATL 110 @ NY 119Picked NY 72%Hit
- Dec 11ATL 108 @ NY 100Picked NY 75%Miss
- Nov 6NY 116 @ ATL 121Picked NY 72%Miss
- Mar 5ATL 116 @ NY 100Picked NY 61%Miss
- Nov 15NY 116 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 62%Miss
- Oct 27NY 126 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 64%Miss