Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- Josh GiddeyAssists15
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–123
- Q40.1Hawks offensive team rebound126–123
- Q40.6Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses heave jump shot126–123
- Q41.5Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2126–123
- Q41.5Asa Newell enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher125–123
- Q41.5Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2125–123
- Q41.5Zaccharie Risacher personal take foul124–123
- Q41.9Trae Young enters the game for Asa Newell124–123
- Q41.9Coby White makes free throw 1 of 1124–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:20Tre Jones makes driving layupCHI 120 – 119 ATL · CHI 37% → 61% +25CHI 37% → 61%+25 pts
- Q439.8Josh Giddey makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotCHI 122 – 119 ATL · CHI 66% → 90% +24CHI 66% → 90%+24 pts
- Q436.1Trae Young makes 1-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)CHI 122 – 121 ATL · ATL 8% → 33% +24ATL 8% → 33%+24 pts
- Q42.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layup (Jalen Johnson assists)CHI 123 – 123 ATL · ATL <1% → 50% +50ATL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q41.9Coby White makes free throw 1 of 1CHI 124 – 123 ATL · CHI 50% → 98% +48CHI 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML CHI +124 / ATL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 125.5 – 129.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 254.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +11 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Dyson Daniels −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 118.710th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.5 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 30 |
| 25th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 145117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+11 Elo- Dyson Daniels right hip−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–15 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–3 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Dec 21CHI 152 @ ATL 150Picked ATL 61%Miss
- Oct 27ATL 123 @ CHI 128Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Jan 15ATL 110 @ CHI 94Picked CHI 68%Miss
- Dec 26CHI 133 @ ATL 141Picked ATL 64%Hit
- Nov 22ATL 122 @ CHI 136Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Nov 9CHI 125 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 56%Miss
- Apr 1ATL 113 @ CHI 101Picked CHI 54%Miss
- Feb 12CHI 136 @ ATL 126Picked CHI 50%Hit