Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints36
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game152–150
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter152–150
- Q40.1Hawks offensive team rebound152–150
- Q41.4Trae Young misses 16-foot pullup jump shot152–150
- Q44.2Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Matas Buzelis152–150
- Q44.2Trae Young enters the game for Asa Newell152–150
- Q44.2Vit Krejci enters the game for Dyson Daniels152–150
- Q44.2Hawks Full timeout152–150
- Q44.2Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2152–150
- Q44.2Asa Newell enters the game for Trae Young151–150
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:24Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 122 – 120 ATL · CHI 40% → 55% +15CHI 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q44:52Trae Young makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)CHI 133 – 129 ATL · ATL 15% → 29% +14ATL 15% → 29%+14 pts
- Q44:30Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 136 – 129 ATL · CHI 72% → 87% +14CHI 72% → 87%+14 pts
- Q41:29Jalen Johnson makes layup (Trae Young assists)CHI 143 – 142 ATL · ATL 20% → 40% +20ATL 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q41:11Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 146 – 142 ATL · CHI 61% → 90% +29CHI 61% → 90%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML CHI +145 / ATL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- CHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 122.0 – 126.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +15 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +72 Elo | ATL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.615th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 118.322nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.7 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.212th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 113.917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.0 | Pace | 103.011th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148423rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301424 | Elo rating | 145718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+15 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis injury/illness−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 27ATL 123 @ CHI 128Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Jan 15ATL 110 @ CHI 94Picked CHI 68%Miss
- Dec 26CHI 133 @ ATL 141Picked ATL 64%Hit
- Nov 22ATL 122 @ CHI 136Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Nov 9CHI 125 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 56%Miss
- Apr 1ATL 113 @ CHI 101Picked CHI 54%Miss
- Feb 12CHI 136 @ ATL 126Picked CHI 50%Hit
- Dec 26ATL 113 @ CHI 118Picked CHI 55%Hit