Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints34
- Tyler KolekAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–126
- Q40.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound124–126
- Q41.0Donovan Mitchell misses heave jump shot124–126
- Q41.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound124–126
- Q41.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses free throw 2 of 2124–126
- Q41.1Lonzo Ball enters the game for Dean Wade124–126
- Q41.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2124–126
- Q41.1Dean Wade personal take foul124–125
- Q42.4Dean Wade enters the game for Lonzo Ball124–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:48Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 113 – 113 NY · NY 32% → 53% +21NY 32% → 53%+21 pts
- Q42:27Tyler Kolek makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CLE 117 – 116 NY · NY 20% → 44% +24NY 20% → 44%+24 pts
- Q41:29Mikal Bridges makes 8-foot running pullup jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)CLE 117 – 118 NY · NY 40% → 64% +23NY 40% → 64%+23 pts
- Q41:14Darius Garland makes driving layupCLE 119 – 118 NY · CLE 35% → 61% +25CLE 35% → 61%+25 pts
- Q41:05Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 119 – 121 NY · NY 38% → 77% +39NY 38% → 77%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML CLE +150 / NY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- NY: Elo 68.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -161
- CLE +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 123.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +35 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +134 Elo | NY 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 120.24th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 112.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +7.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 119.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 100.625th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 14–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 147925th of 30 |
| 13th of 301532 | Elo rating | 16194th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–22 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 16–10 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Oct 22CLE 111 @ NY 119Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Apr 11CLE 108 @ NY 102Picked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 2NY 105 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Feb 21NY 105 @ CLE 142Picked CLE 71%Hit
- Oct 28CLE 110 @ NY 104Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 3NY 107 @ CLE 98Picked CLE 56%Miss
- Nov 1CLE 95 @ NY 89Picked NY 54%Miss
- Oct 31NY 109 @ CLE 91Picked CLE 64%Miss