New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints26
- Derik QueenAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–141
- Q47.1Micah Peavy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)118–141
- Q413.3Jordan Hawkins offensive rebound115–141
- Q413.3Thomas Bryant blocks Karlo Matkovic's dunk115–141
- Q417.8Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound115–141
- Q417.8Jeremiah Fears misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot115–141
- Q425.2Pelicans offensive team rebound115–141
- Q425.2Nae'Qwan Tomlin blocks Micah Peavy 's 1-foot two point shot115–141
- Q431.9Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes running dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)115–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot running jump shot (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 3 – 0 CLE · NO 22% → 27% +5NO 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q111:21Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)NO 3 – 3 CLE · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q234.0Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three pointerNO 58 – 66 CLE · CLE 82% → 87% +5CLE 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q38:57Derik Queen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 70 – 76 CLE · NO 11% → 16% +5NO 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q38:44Darius Garland makes 30-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)NO 70 – 79 CLE · CLE 84% → 89% +5CLE 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML NO +330 / CLE -425
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.2%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -348
- NO +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.5 – 129.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +54 | −15 | NO: Missing Dejounte Murray −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +109 Elo | CLE 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 119.39th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 117.520th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 30 |
| 4th of 301530 | Opponent Elo | 146830th of 30 |
| 28th of 301391 | Elo rating | 152113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+54 Elo- Dejounte Murray achilles−16 Elo
Cavaliers
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–11 | 8–22 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.