Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints25
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q47.2Vit Krejci enters the game for Trae Young126–111
- Q47.2shot clock turnover126–111
- Q430.0Kel'el Ware defensive rebound126–111
- Q433.1Dyson Daniels misses 24-foot three point jumper126–111
- Q442.8Kel'el Ware makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)126–111
- Q455.9Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2123–111
- Q455.9Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2123–110
- Q455.9Kel'el Ware shooting foul123–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:11Trae Young makes 24-foot three pointerMIA 69 – 64 ATL · ATL 30% → 39% +9ATL 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q36:07Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 74 – 68 ATL · MIA 56% → 65% +10MIA 56% → 65%+10 pts
- Q33:07Trae Young makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)MIA 79 – 78 ATL · ATL 39% → 50% +11ATL 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q31:14Kasparas Jakucionis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 86 – 78 ATL · MIA 66% → 76% +10MIA 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q410:42Vit Krejci makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)MIA 94 – 87 ATL · ATL 15% → 25% +9ATL 15% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML MIA +124 / ATL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 124.0 – 126.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 250.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +21 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −25, Bam Adebayo −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 118.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 119.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 103.56th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–10 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 30 |
| 8th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301455 | Elo rating | 144420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−18 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−25 Elo
- Bam Adebayo lower back soreness−25 Elo
Hawks
+21 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–14 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Mar 27ATL 112 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 53%Hit
- Feb 26ATL 109 @ MIA 131Picked MIA 58%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 86 @ ATL 98Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Dec 28MIA 110 @ ATL 120Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 117 @ ATL 111Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Jan 19ATL 109 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 72%Miss
- Dec 22ATL 113 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Nov 11MIA 117 @ ATL 109Picked ATL 70%Miss