Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Adem BonaRebounds8
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints29
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–129
- Q47.8shot clock turnover104–129
- Q430.9Kenrich Williams defensive rebound104–129
- Q434.1Quentin Grimes misses 26-foot three point jumper104–129
- Q438.2Jabari Walker offensive rebound104–129
- Q440.7Justin Edwards misses 25-foot three point jumper104–129
- Q448.0Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three pointer104–129
- Q449.6Kenrich Williams offensive rebound104–126
- Q452.6Cason Wallace misses 27-foot three point jumper104–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:58Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 58 – 57 OKC · PHI 18% → 24% +6PHI 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q21:42Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 61 – 59 OKC · PHI 20% → 27% +7PHI 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q310:01Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 67 – 68 OKC · PHI 15% → 22% +6PHI 15% → 22%+6 pts
- Q38:23Paul George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 73 – 75 OKC · PHI 14% → 20% +6PHI 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q38:01Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)PHI 73 – 78 OKC · OKC 80% → 86% +6OKC 80% → 86%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML PHI +550 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.5%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -578
- PHI +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1707 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +32 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +322 Elo | OKC 86.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 121.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 107.41st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +13.91st of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 118.15th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 104.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 14–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148026th of 30 |
| 18th of 301439 | Elo rating | 17071st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–11 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.