Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Paul GeorgeRebounds11
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints15
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Jalen SmithRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–109
- Q48.7Josh Giddey defensive rebound102–109
- Q411.7Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot102–109
- Q417.2Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
- Q417.2Isaac Okoro enters the game for Kevin Huerter102–108
- Q417.2Bulls offensive team rebound102–108
- Q417.2Tre Jones misses free throw 1 of 2102–108
- Q417.2VJ Edgecombe personal take foul102–108
- Q417.8Kevin Huerter enters the game for Jalen Smith102–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:23Zach Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)PHI 91 – 90 CHI · CHI 29% → 43% +15CHI 29% → 43%+15 pts
- Q42:45Joel Embiid makes driving layup (Paul George assists)PHI 102 – 99 CHI · PHI 59% → 75% +16PHI 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q42:31Jalen Smith makes 1-foot driving dunk (Josh Giddey assists)PHI 102 – 101 CHI · CHI 24% → 40% +16CHI 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q41:54Coby White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 102 – 104 CHI · CHI 39% → 69% +30CHI 39% → 69%+30 pts
- Q41:27Tre Jones makes 2-foot reverse layup (Coby White assists)PHI 102 – 106 CHI · CHI 72% → 88% +16CHI 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.5 – 120.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +82 | +29 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 119.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 123.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −3.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 116.524th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.9 | Pace | 105.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 7–615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 147927th of 30 |
| 18th of 301448 | Elo rating | 143720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–10 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–5 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 4PHI 111 @ CHI 113Picked CHI 54%Hit
- Apr 13CHI 122 @ PHI 102Picked CHI 73%Hit
- Feb 24CHI 142 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 68%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 109 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Dec 8PHI 108 @ CHI 100Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Jan 2CHI 97 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 71%Hit
- Dec 30PHI 92 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Dec 18CHI 108 @ PHI 104Picked PHI 77%Miss