Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Sidy CissokoPoints19
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–124
- Q40.2shot clock turnover95–124
- Q422.9Branden Carlson defensive rebound95–124
- Q425.7Yang Hansen misses 13-foot two point shot95–124
- Q440.7Chris Youngblood loose ball foul95–124
- Q440.7Trail Blazers offensive team rebound95–124
- Q443.6Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point jumper95–124
- Q445.2Yang Hansen offensive rebound95–124
- Q448.0Duop Reath misses driving layup95–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Sidy Cissoko makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 3 – 0 OKC · POR 13% → 16% +4POR 13% → 16%+4 pts
- Q111:21Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)POR 3 – 3 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q111:01Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)POR 3 – 6 OKC · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q14:36Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 18 – 18 OKC · POR 11% → 15% +4POR 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q14:23Branden Carlson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)POR 18 – 21 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +4OKC 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML POR +650 / OKC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13
- OKC 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 88.9%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -682
- POR +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1713 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +36 | POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +361 Elo | OKC 88.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 122.12nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 107.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.3 | Margin | +14.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 118.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 104.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 16–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 147429th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301432 | Elo rating | 17131st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+16 Elo- Jrue Holiday strained right calf−19 Elo
Thunder
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–16 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | — |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–10 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Nov 30OKC 123 @ POR 115Picked OKC 83%Hit
- Nov 23POR 95 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Nov 5OKC 119 @ POR 121Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Mar 7POR 89 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Jan 26OKC 118 @ POR 108Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Nov 20POR 99 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 1OKC 137 @ POR 114Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Mar 6OKC 128 @ POR 120Picked OKC 67%Hit