Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Max ChristiePoints25
- Cooper FlaggAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints27
- Deni AvdijaAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–125
- Q40.1Mavericks offensive team rebound122–125
- Q40.6Klay Thompson misses 24-foot three point jumper122–125
- Q43.0Max Christie enters the game for Dwight Powell122–125
- Q43.0Klay Thompson enters the game for Naji Marshall122–125
- Q43.0Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan122–125
- Q43.0Mavericks Full timeout122–125
- Q43.0Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2122–125
- Q43.0Daniel Gafford enters the game for Klay Thompson122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:27Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 113 – 110 POR · DAL 48% → 68% +20DAL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q44:13Caleb Love makes 28-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)DAL 113 – 113 POR · POR 31% → 52% +20POR 31% → 52%+20 pts
- Q42:31Caleb Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)DAL 117 – 118 POR · POR 34% → 60% +27POR 34% → 60%+27 pts
- Q41:57Max Christie makes tip shotDAL 119 – 120 POR · DAL 21% → 39% +18DAL 21% → 39%+18 pts
- Q41:09Max Christie makes 27-foot running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 122 – 121 POR · DAL 24% → 62% +38DAL 24% → 62%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -2.5
- ML DAL +114 / POR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2
- POR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- POR: Elo 58.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.0 – 117.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | +43 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +62 Elo | POR 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 116.615th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 120.124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | −3.522nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.618th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301434 | Elo rating | 142821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–18 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 8–1 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 16POR 133 @ DAL 138Picked POR 58%Miss
- Jan 9POR 111 @ DAL 117Picked DAL 72%Hit
- Dec 28DAL 122 @ POR 126Picked DAL 58%Miss
- Dec 23POR 108 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Dec 1DAL 137 @ POR 131Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 5POR 103 @ DAL 139Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 3POR 97 @ DAL 126Picked DAL 66%Hit
- Dec 16DAL 131 @ POR 120Picked DAL 64%Hit