Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Draymond GreenAssists12
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints33
- Kon KnueppelAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–125
- Q45.6Draymond Green defensive rebound132–125
- Q48.0Brandon Miller misses 32-foot three point jumper132–125
- Q417.1Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 2132–125
- Q417.1Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 2131–125
- Q417.1Kon Knueppel personal take foul130–125
- Q418.0Warriors Full timeout130–125
- Q424.7LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)130–125
- Q427.1LaMelo Ball enters the game for Tidjane Salaun130–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:44LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 91 – 94 CHA · CHA 38% → 48% +11CHA 38% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:11Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)GS 94 – 96 CHA · GS 43% → 54% +11GS 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q411:33Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three pointer (De'Anthony Melton assists)GS 101 – 100 CHA · GS 52% → 65% +12GS 52% → 65%+12 pts
- Q410:05Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 106 – 102 CHA · GS 64% → 76% +12GS 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q48:27Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three pointerGS 109 – 104 CHA · GS 68% → 80% +12GS 68% → 80%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -285 / CHA +230
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- GS: Elo 70.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -244
- CHA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.0 – 113.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +8 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +149 Elo | GS 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Points scored | 115.520th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 118.522nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −3.021st of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–12 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301561 | Elo rating | 138928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–17 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 20–13 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.