Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints22
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints24
- Anthony BlackAssists4
- Desmond BaneRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–105
- Q43.6shot clock turnover120–105
- Q427.7Jase Richardson makes free throw 1 of 1120–105
- Q427.7PJ Hall shooting foul120–104
- Q427.7Jase Richardson makes driving layup (Jett Howard assists)120–104
- Q428.6Jett Howard offensive rebound120–102
- Q432.3Jamal Cain misses 23-foot three point jumper120–102
- Q434.2Jase Richardson offensive rebound120–102
- Q439.6Jett Howard misses 28-foot three point jumper120–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:47Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 60 – 48 ORL · CHA 64% → 72% +8CHA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:33LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 65 – 54 ORL · CHA 63% → 71% +8CHA 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:21Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 65 – 57 ORL · ORL 29% → 37% +8ORL 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q38:07Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 70 – 57 ORL · CHA 70% → 78% +8CHA 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:27Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 77 – 63 ORL · CHA 75% → 83% +7CHA 75% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML CHA +190 / ORL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 68.5%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -202
- CHA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.0 – 116.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −14 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | ORL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +135 Elo | ORL 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 117.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.4 | Margin | +2.310th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 111.27th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 15147th of 30 |
| 29th of 301377 | Elo rating | 153511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–14 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–19 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–8 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Oct 30ORL 123 @ CHA 107Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Mar 25ORL 111 @ CHA 104Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Feb 12CHA 86 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 25ORL 95 @ CHA 84Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Nov 12CHA 89 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Apr 5ORL 115 @ CHA 124Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Mar 19CHA 92 @ ORL 112Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Mar 5ORL 101 @ CHA 89Picked ORL 66%Hit