Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Stephen CurryAssists3
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds8
Clippers- Bennedict MathurinPoints20
- Bennedict MathurinAssists8
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q411.7Nate Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Charles Bassey assists)110–115
- Q422.6Will Richard defensive rebound107–115
- Q424.7Bennedict Mathurin misses 9-foot pullup jump shot107–115
- Q443.1Malevy Leons makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Nate Williams assists)107–115
- Q41:03Jordan Miller makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)105–115
- Q41:25Charles Bassey makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q41:25Charles Bassey makes free throw 1 of 2104–112
- Q41:25Jordan Miller loose ball foul103–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:38Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 65 – 67 LAC · GS 28% → 38% +9GS 28% → 38%+9 pts
- Q32:07Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Charles Bassey assists)GS 76 – 75 LAC · GS 37% → 49% +11GS 37% → 49%+11 pts
- Q31:23Nicolas Batum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)GS 76 – 79 LAC · LAC 55% → 66% +11LAC 55% → 66%+11 pts
- Q411:04Nicolas Batum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)GS 83 – 88 LAC · LAC 63% → 74% +11LAC 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q49:56Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)GS 85 – 93 LAC · LAC 75% → 85% +10LAC 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML GS +136 / LAC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 54.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -146
- GS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.0 – 116.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −55 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +31 Elo | LAC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 112.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 115.111th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–25 | Road vs home | 22–1818th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301455 | Elo rating | 154113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–46 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 48–33 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–9 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Mar 2LAC 114 @ GS 101Picked LAC 50%Hit
- Jan 5GS 102 @ LAC 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Oct 28LAC 79 @ GS 98Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Apr 13LAC 124 @ GS 119Picked GS 60%Miss
- Dec 27GS 92 @ LAC 102Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Nov 18GS 99 @ LAC 102Picked GS 65%Miss
- Oct 27LAC 112 @ GS 104Picked GS 76%Miss
- Feb 14LAC 130 @ GS 125Picked GS 55%Miss