LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints35
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–116
- Q47.4shot clock turnover97–116
- Q430.4Jayson Kent defensive rebound97–116
- Q433.6Norchad Omier misses 2-foot reverse layup97–116
- Q450.6Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 297–116
- Q450.6Trail Blazers offensive team rebound97–115
- Q450.6Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 297–115
- Q450.6Norchad Omier shooting foul97–115
- Q41:07Norchad Omier makes tip shot97–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:10Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 69 – 73 POR · POR 55% → 65% +10POR 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q35:47Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 72 – 73 POR · LAC 35% → 45% +10LAC 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q34:13Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 77 – 77 POR · LAC 38% → 48% +11LAC 38% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:05Jordan Miller makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)LAC 82 – 79 POR · LAC 49% → 60% +11LAC 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q31:48Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)LAC 82 – 82 POR · POR 40% → 51% +12POR 40% → 51%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- POR -1.5
- ML LAC +102 / POR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- POR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- POR: Elo 48.4%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- POR -111
- LAC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.5 – 114.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +56 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +11 Elo | LAC 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 115.417th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 22–1716th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 13th of 301557 | Elo rating | 147919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–39 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 41–39 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 8–2 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 31POR 114 @ LAC 104Picked LAC 64%Miss
- Dec 26LAC 119 @ POR 103Picked LAC 54%Hit
- Oct 26POR 107 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 73%Hit
- Jan 16LAC 118 @ POR 89Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Dec 3POR 105 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Oct 30POR 106 @ LAC 105Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Mar 22LAC 125 @ POR 117Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Mar 20LAC 116 @ POR 103Picked LAC 67%Hit