Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints29
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q46.9shot clock turnover101–112
- Q430.3Luke Kornet defensive rebound101–112
- Q432.3Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot101–112
- Q438.5De'Aaron Fox makes layup (Luke Kornet assists)101–112
- Q441.8Kris Murray enters the game for Donovan Clingan101–110
- Q441.8Spurs Full timeout101–110
- Q441.8Jrue Holiday makes 10-foot pullup jump shot101–110
- Q455.5Keldon Johnson makes 8-foot two point shot99–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:55Toumani Camara makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 68 – 73 SA · POR 21% → 29% +8POR 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q34:54Scoot Henderson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 71 – 75 SA · POR 23% → 32% +9POR 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q33:15Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)POR 71 – 80 SA · SA 75% → 83% +8SA 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q43:36Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 97 – 103 SA · POR 4% → 12% +8POR 4% → 12%+8 pts
- Q43:12De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)POR 97 – 106 SA · SA 90% → 97% +7SA 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML POR +130 / SA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.5 pts
- SA: Elo 73.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -140
- POR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 116.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1702 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −34 | POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +180 Elo | SA 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 119.63rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 111.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +8.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 109.33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 30–72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301484 | Elo rating | 17022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+52 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−5 Elo
Spurs
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–36 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 42–37 | 34–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–6 SA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 3POR 115 @ SA 110Picked SA 73%Miss
- Nov 26SA 115 @ POR 102Picked SA 52%Hit
- Apr 6SA 109 @ POR 120Picked POR 58%Hit
- Dec 21POR 94 @ SA 114Picked SA 70%Hit
- Dec 13SA 118 @ POR 116Picked SA 58%Hit
- Nov 7POR 105 @ SA 118Picked SA 61%Hit
- Jan 26POR 100 @ SA 116Picked SA 56%Hit
- Dec 29SA 128 @ POR 134Picked POR 63%Hit