San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints41
- Stephon CastleAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Warriors- Nate WilliamsPoints18
- Pat SpencerAssists7
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–113
- Q41.6shot clock turnover127–113
- Q425.8Malevy Leons makes two point shot127–113
- Q425.8Malevy Leons offensive rebound127–111
- Q426.9Malevy Leons misses driving layup127–111
- Q433.5Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound127–111
- Q436.3Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper127–111
- Q457.8Pat Spencer makes 28-foot three pointer127–111
- Q41:08Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound127–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Victor Wembanyama makes 13-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)SA 2 – 0 GS · SA 88% → 90% +2SA 88% → 90%+2 pts
- Q19:07Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)SA 10 – 3 GS · GS 5% → 6% +2GS 5% → 6%+2 pts
- Q210:51Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (LJ Cryer assists)SA 36 – 31 GS · GS 7% → 10% +3GS 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q29:40Victor Wembanyama makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 38 – 31 GS · SA 90% → 92% +2SA 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q29:14De'Aaron Fox makes tip shotSA 40 – 33 GS · SA 90% → 92% +2SA 90% → 92%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -14.5
- ML SA -1100 / GS +700
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -12
- SA 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- SA: Elo 87.0%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -733
- GS +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.5 – 107.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1684 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | −110 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing De'Anthony Melton −22, Gui Santos −16, Gary Payton II −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +330 Elo | SA 87.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 85.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 86.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.4 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 114.913th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–11 | Road vs home | 21–1515th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301684 | Elo rating | 148718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−110 Elo- De'Anthony Melton left thumb−22 Elo
- Gui Santos right pelvic contusion−16 Elo
- Gary Payton II right knee injury−14 Elo
- Moses Moody left patella tendon surgery−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–32 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–44 | 45–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–6 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.