Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints20
- Gui SantosAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds6
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints28
- Dyson DanielsAssists6
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)110–126
- Q43.5Buddy Hield defensive rebound110–126
- Q44.5Mouhamed Gueye blocks LJ Cryer 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot110–126
- Q415.2LJ Cryer defensive rebound110–126
- Q418.7Buddy Hield misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot110–126
- Q427.3Gabe Vincent defensive rebound110–126
- Q430.8LJ Cryer misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot110–126
- Q436.9Warriors offensive team rebound110–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:37De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three pointerGS 50 – 42 ATL · GS 44% → 52% +8GS 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q25:02Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)GS 52 – 47 ATL · ATL 47% → 55% +8ATL 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q24:37Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)GS 52 – 50 ATL · ATL 55% → 63% +8ATL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:30Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)GS 54 – 53 ATL · ATL 57% → 65% +8ATL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q21:34LJ Cryer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 57 – 55 ATL · GS 31% → 38% +8GS 31% → 38%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML GS +250 / ATL -310
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.6%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -265
- GS +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.5 – 118.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −73 | −12 | GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −31, Gary Payton II −5, Moses Moody −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +128 Elo | ATL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 19–1617th of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 153513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−73 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis lower back tightness−31 Elo
- Gary Payton II right hip contusion−5 Elo
- Moses Moody right wrist sprain−3 Elo
Hawks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–39 | 37–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 17–18 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–28 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.