Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints22
- Ryan RollinsAssists8
- Kevin Porter Jr.Rebounds7
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–122
- Q422.2Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound99–122
- Q425.3Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–122
- Q436.1Christian Koloko makes layup (Keaton Wallace assists)99–122
- Q451.8Gary Trent Jr. makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Pete Nance assists)99–120
- Q41:11Keaton Wallace makes two point shot97–120
- Q41:16Keaton Wallace defensive rebound97–118
- Q41:19Gary Harris misses 26-foot three point jumper97–118
- Q41:26Pete Nance defensive rebound97–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:04AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 22 – 19 ATL · MIL 22% → 27% +5MIL 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q11:16CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 28 – 30 ATL · ATL 75% → 81% +5ATL 75% → 81%+5 pts
- Q211:10CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Corey Kispert assists)MIL 32 – 35 ATL · ATL 76% → 82% +5ATL 76% → 82%+5 pts
- Q39:22Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 59 – 64 ATL · MIL 12% → 17% +5MIL 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q39:06CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)MIL 59 – 67 ATL · ATL 83% → 88% +5ATL 83% → 88%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -11.5
- ML MIL +380 / ATL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -9
- ATL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 81.0%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -400
- MIL +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 108.5 – 120.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +22 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +252 Elo | ATL 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | +0.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 21st of 301406 | Elo rating | 153215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–37 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 20–21 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37 | 32–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–5 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Mar 4ATL 131 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jan 19MIL 112 @ ATL 110Picked ATL 52%Miss
- Mar 30ATL 145 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 4MIL 127 @ ATL 121Picked MIL 66%Hit
- Feb 7MIL 110 @ ATL 115Picked MIL 56%Miss
- Dec 14ATL 102 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 60%Hit
- Dec 4ATL 119 @ MIL 104Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 30MIL 122 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 51%Miss