Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Josh MinottPoints24
- Ben SarafAssists4
- Danny WolfRebounds8
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints21
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–108
- Q422.2Josh Minott makes running dunk97–108
- Q423.9Chaney Johnson defensive rebound95–108
- Q427.9CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper95–108
- Q447.3Josh Minott makes free throw 3 of 395–108
- Q447.3Nets offensive team rebound94–108
- Q447.3Josh Minott misses free throw 2 of 394–108
- Q447.3Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 394–108
- Q447.3Zaccharie Risacher shooting foul93–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:37Josh Minott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)BKN 74 – 74 ATL · BKN 17% → 24% +8BKN 17% → 24%+8 pts
- Q410:53Ben Saraf makes 11-foot two point shotBKN 83 – 82 ATL · BKN 25% → 32% +7BKN 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q410:28Mouhamed Gueye makes dunkBKN 83 – 84 ATL · ATL 67% → 75% +8ATL 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q45:53Josh Minott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 89 – 93 ATL · BKN 7% → 15% +8BKN 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q44:09Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)BKN 91 – 98 ATL · ATL 86% → 94% +9ATL 86% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -15.5
- ML BKN +750 / ATL -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -11.5
- ATL 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 86.9%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -785
- BKN +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 121.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1321 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | +22 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +329 Elo | ATL 86.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 87.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 87.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 117.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +0.618th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 308–25 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301321 | Elo rating | 153015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–36 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 25–35 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–5 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 22BKN 104 @ ATL 115Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 29ATL 117 @ BKN 112Picked ATL 73%Hit
- Apr 10ATL 133 @ BKN 109Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 16ATL 114 @ BKN 122Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Oct 23BKN 116 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Mar 2ATL 102 @ BKN 114Picked BKN 56%Hit
- Feb 29ATL 97 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 50%Hit
- Dec 6BKN 114 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 51%Miss