Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points30
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists4
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds13
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints18
- Daniss JenkinsAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–105
- Q40.1Pistons offensive team rebound107–105
- Q40.6Jalen Duren misses 11-foot jumper107–105
- Q41.0Jalen Duren offensive rebound107–105
- Q43.7Duncan Robinson misses 23-foot three point jumper107–105
- Q47.3Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Danny Wolf107–105
- Q47.3Nic Claxton enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.107–105
- Q47.3Kevin Huerter enters the game for Ronald Holland II107–105
- Q47.3Duncan Robinson enters the game for Javonte Green107–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:16Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)BKN 102 – 103 DET · BKN 12% → 32% +20BKN 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q41:28Ziaire Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)BKN 105 – 103 DET · BKN 32% → 66% +34BKN 32% → 66%+34 pts
- Q453.7Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 106 – 103 DET · BKN 73% → 84% +11BKN 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q453.7Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 107 – 103 DET · BKN 84% → 92% +7BKN 84% → 92%+7 pts
- Q449.1Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 107 – 105 DET · DET 14% → 25% +11DET 14% → 25%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -13.5
- ML BKN +550 / DET -800
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -12
- DET 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 87.3%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -578
- BKN +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1300 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | −34 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +335 Elo | DET 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 84.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 85.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 109.64th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 114.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 107.12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.814th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–25 | Road vs home | 23–73rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 29th of 301300 | Elo rating | 16246th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–35 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 22–27 |
| Underdog | 24–34 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33 | 25–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–6 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 1BKN 77 @ DET 130Picked DET 84%Hit
- Nov 7DET 125 @ BKN 107Picked DET 76%Hit
- Mar 1BKN 94 @ DET 115Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 8DET 113 @ BKN 98Picked DET 78%Hit
- Nov 3DET 106 @ BKN 92Picked BKN 58%Miss
- Apr 6DET 103 @ BKN 113Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 7BKN 112 @ DET 118Picked BKN 52%Miss
- Dec 26BKN 118 @ DET 112Picked BKN 66%Hit