Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints38
- Stephon CastleAssists12
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–121
- Q417.2shot clock turnover106–121
- Q439.6Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound106–121
- Q441.9Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 2106–121
- Q441.9Dylan Harper enters the game for Devin Vassell106–121
- Q441.9Pistons offensive team rebound106–121
- Q441.9Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 1 of 2106–121
- Q441.9Devin Vassell personal foul106–121
- Q442.5Bobi Klintman defensive rebound106–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:31Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)DET 0 – 3 SA · SA 57% → 63% +6SA 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q19:18Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 5 – 10 SA · DET 27% → 33% +6DET 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q18:38Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DET 7 – 15 SA · SA 67% → 73% +6SA 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q15:27Dylan Harper makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)DET 15 – 24 SA · SA 69% → 75% +6SA 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q14:53Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)DET 19 – 27 SA · SA 67% → 73% +6SA 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML DET +124 / SA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SA: Elo 52.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -134
- DET +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.5 – 115.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +43 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +17 Elo | SA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 111.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +6.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 115.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–8 | Road vs home | 21–62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 5th of 301637 | Elo rating | 16166th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–27 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.