Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds11
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–92
- Q421.5Javonte Green defensive rebound106–92
- Q424.4Jalen Suggs misses 25-foot three point jumper106–92
- Q436.0Ausar Thompson makes layup (Cade Cunningham assists)106–92
- Q456.3Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Tobias Harris steals)104–92
- Q41:02Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot driving dunk104–92
- Q41:03Paolo Banchero bad pass
turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)102–92
- Q41:05Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound102–92
- Q41:08Ausar Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2102–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:53Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 62 – 63 ORL · DET 47% → 56% +10DET 47% → 56%+10 pts
- Q36:44Tobias Harris makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 67 – 65 ORL · DET 56% → 65% +10DET 56% → 65%+10 pts
- Q34:54Cade Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 73 – 71 ORL · DET 55% → 65% +10DET 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q411:41Moritz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)DET 81 – 78 ORL · ORL 21% → 31% +10ORL 21% → 31%+10 pts
- Q410:12Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 83 – 83 ORL · ORL 31% → 43% +13ORL 31% → 43%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML DET -205 / ORL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- DET: Elo 74.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -181
- ORL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.0 – 109.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +7 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +185 Elo | DET 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 114.613th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 112.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–7 | Road vs home | 17–109th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 4th of 301639 | Elo rating | 147119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–27 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–26 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–7 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit
- Nov 23DET 100 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 78%Hit
- Mar 3DET 91 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 24ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked ORL 67%Hit
- Feb 4ORL 111 @ DET 99Picked ORL 62%Hit