Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints25
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists12
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–122
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–122
- OT0.4Cavaliers offensive team rebound119–122
- OT0.4Evan Mobley misses 26-foot three point jumper119–122
- OT7.2Marcus Sasser lost ball turnover (Sam Merrill steals)119–122
- OT7.2Sam Merrill vs. Marcus Sasser (Dennis Schroder gains possession)119–122
- OT14.6Sam Merrill personal foul119–122
- OT14.6Ausar Thompson defensive rebound119–122
- OT17.1Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point jumper119–122
- OT21.5Cavaliers Full timeout119–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:26Tobias Harris makes 4-foot dunkCLE 109 – 107 DET · DET 14% → 31% +17DET 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q435.9Dennis Schroder makes driving layupCLE 112 – 109 DET · CLE 65% → 91% +25CLE 65% → 91%+25 pts
- Q413.1Jalen Duren makes dunkCLE 112 – 111 DET · DET 1% → 23% +22DET 1% → 23%+22 pts
- Q44.7Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 3 of 3CLE 114 – 114 DET · DET 10% → 51% +41DET 10% → 51%+41 pts
- OT21.9Tobias Harris makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotCLE 119 – 122 DET · DET 74% → 97% +22DET 74% → 97%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML CLE +270 / DET -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 71.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -286
- CLE +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.5 – 118.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +60 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +155 Elo | DET 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +7.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 114.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 22–73rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301633 | Elo rating | 16363rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–35 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 10–1 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–2 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 4DET 114 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Oct 25DET 101 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 1CLE 110 @ DET 100Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 31DET 121 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 83%Hit