New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints20
- Josh HartAssists5
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds16
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–109
- Q48.8Tyler Kolek makes 1-foot layup (Dillon Jones assists)94–109
- Q415.5Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound92–109
- Q418.6Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses alley oop dunk92–109
- Q427.5Craig Porter Jr. offensive rebound92–109
- Q431.1Darius Brown misses 17-foot pullup jump shot92–109
- Q445.0Mohamed Diawara makes driving layup (Tyler Kolek assists)92–109
- Q41:05Thomas Bryant makes free throw 2 of 290–109
- Q41:05Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 290–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:45Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)NY 2 – 3 CLE · CLE 56% → 62% +6CLE 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q11:33Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)NY 24 – 30 CLE · CLE 66% → 72% +6CLE 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q23:00Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three pointer (OG Anunoby assists)NY 49 – 50 CLE · NY 32% → 39% +8NY 32% → 39%+8 pts
- Q234.4Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 52 – 58 CLE · NY 20% → 27% +7NY 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q39:15James Harden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)NY 58 – 69 CLE · CLE 79% → 85% +6CLE 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML NY +142 / CLE -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -152
- NY +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +18 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +57 Elo | CLE 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +4.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 116.15th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 19–119th of 30 |
| 25th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 6th of 301615 | Elo rating | 16274th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–29 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–5 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Dec 25CLE 124 @ NY 126Picked NY 62%Hit
- Oct 22CLE 111 @ NY 119Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Apr 11CLE 108 @ NY 102Picked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 2NY 105 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Feb 21NY 105 @ CLE 142Picked CLE 71%Hit
- Oct 28CLE 110 @ NY 104Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 3NY 107 @ CLE 98Picked CLE 56%Miss
- Nov 1CLE 95 @ NY 89Picked NY 54%Miss