Houston Rockets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Tari EasonRebounds12
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.1Rockets offensive team rebound106–108
- Q40.4Kevin Durant misses 40-foot jump bank shot106–108
- Q41.4Landry Shamet makes free throw 2 of 2106–108
- Q41.4Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Jalen Brunson106–107
- Q41.4Knicks offensive team rebound106–107
- Q41.4Landry Shamet misses free throw 1 of 2106–107
- Q41.4Reed Sheppard personal take foul106–107
- Q42.4Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointer106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:44Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot pullup jump shotHOU 101 – 99 NY · NY 21% → 35% +14NY 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q42:26Kevin Durant makes 19-foot jumperHOU 103 – 99 NY · HOU 66% → 81% +15HOU 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:52Jose Alvarado makes running layupHOU 103 – 101 NY · NY 16% → 32% +16NY 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q41:26Jalen Brunson makes two point shotHOU 103 – 103 NY · NY 29% → 52% +23NY 29% → 52%+23 pts
- Q429.5Jalen Brunson makes 15-foot pullup jump shotHOU 103 – 105 NY · NY 51% → 85% +34NY 51% → 85%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML HOU +136 / NY -162
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NY: Elo 62.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -146
- HOU +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 112.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +4 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +87 Elo | NY 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 112.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 21–84th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 10th of 301571 | Elo rating | 16086th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–31 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 26–22 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.